We’re coming into the final stretch, and we’re now less than one week away from Biddeford’s municipal elections on Tuesday, Nov. 4.
This is a busy time of year for journalists and for city clerks around the state. The work-load drops considerably on Wednesday, Nov. 5. That day – the day after the elections are over – is actually a holiday. And according to Maine state law, city clerks in each community are required to take local reporters out to lunch and pick up the tab.
On a more serious note, this is the time when people start asking my predictions about the outcome. In Biddeford, I have developed a reputation as the go-to-guy when it comes to local politics.
I know nothing about elections in Saco, Old Orchard Beach or Kennebunk. My “expertise” is rather limited, but I can chat Biddeford politics all day long.
This is the first election for the Biddeford Gazette, a media project I launched in January.
I have tried to be thorough, fair and accurate in all my coverage. I have written candidate profiles on each of the 28 candidates running for office (mayor, city council and school committee)
We have also done in-depth reporting about the local bond issues and thanks to our media partners at The Maine Monitor you can find a balanced analysis of the two state referendum questions.
You can find all that information on a special section of our website, Biddeford Elections 2025.
I also took the initiative to organize the one and only debate featuring the three mayoral candidates, reaching out to my colleagues at Saco Bay News and the Press Herald to join me as panelists. We solicited our questions from the community and we had a great moderator, Craig Pendleton.
I also created a countdown clock and set up a just-for-fun, amateur poll asking my readers who they think will be Biddeford’s next mayor.
Needless to say, it’s been a busy October.
So, what about my predictions?
This will be my 15th Biddeford election. I started in 1997, and I have been fascinated by this city’s politics since.
Biddeford takes its elections seriously, and it can be a rough and tumble affair. You need to wear your big-boy pants if you’re going to tread in these waters.
I actually met my wife because she was running for office, and I made a mistake in my coverage of the Old Orchard Beach School Board race. (True story. Oct. 2001)
Laura started winning races after she married me and took my last name. (Also, a true story)
You can’t make predictions on just gut instinct or who has the most campaign signs posted at the Five Points intersection. You have to look at the data. Past performance is always a good indicator of future results.
You also have to consider other factors, including weather and various state referendum questions that will also be on the ballot.
According to extended weather forecasts, next Tuesday will be partly cloudy with a high of 53 degrees. The state referendum questions are rather benign and will not be big factors, unlike 2010 when Maine voters were asked to approve the Oxford Casino (Disclosure: I was a paid consultant on that referendum question)
You have to look at the data,
past performance is
a good indicator
of future results
I decided this year to limit my data field to the last 10 years, beginning with the 2015 election.
Sadly, off-year municipal elections only draw about 30 percent of Biddeford’s registered voters to the polls. People in Biddeford love to complain about politics, but most of them can’t be bothered to vote.
So, let’s take a quick glance at past elections.
In 2015, there were 34 candidates on the ballot (mayor, council, school committee) and four local referendum questions. Alan Casavant was seeking a third, consecutive term and challenged by Daniel Parenteau. Turnout was 30.03 percent of registered voters, Casavant kicked ass, 2,494 – 1,437
In 2017, voter turnout was 30.93 percent with 22 candidates. Casavant faced only two write-in opponents and breezed to victory for a fourth term with 3,497 votes.
Laura (Seaver) was also reelected as an At-Large councilor, slightly trailing Marc Lessard, 2,989 – 2,902. More importantly School Committee candidate Lisa Vadnais garnered 3,041 votes (Pay attention here. There will be a test later).
In 2019, Things got interesting, Casavant was almost defeated for a fifth term by Jason Litalien who came in a close second (2,234 – 2,127). Turnout was 29.91 percent. Both Lessard (3,051) and Vadnais (2,971) topped the ballot.
In 2021, Casavant easily rolled over challenger Victoria Foley, 3,237 – 1,849. Voter turnout was 33.05 percent. Again, Lessard (3,403) and Vadnais (3,297) topped the ballot. Why the slight bump in turnout? Not sure. There was a statewide referendum about CMP’s transmission corridor project.
Finally, in 2023, Casavant decided not to seek a seventh term. City Councilor Marty Grohman defeated former State Senator Susan Deschambault, 2,894 – 2,223. Not a landslide, but certainly comfortable. Again, Vadnais (3,374) and Lessard (3,021) topped the ballots with the most votes per candidate.
My predictions for 2025
This is a three-way race. Marty has the advantage of the incumbency, but he also has the disadvantage of being the incumbent. When voters are not happy, the incumbent hears about it.
In fairness, Marty can’t be held responsible for some things beyond his control, but his leadership has been called into question by two city councilors who work with him closely. His endorsements of council candidates this year, have actually been rejected by some of those candidates.
It’s a three-way race, and that’s Marty’s best hope going forward. Will Councilors Liam LaFountain and Norm Belanger split the “anti-Marty” vote. Sure, but by how much?
It all depends on how many supporters Belanger and LaFountain can get to the polls.
Bottom line? This race is too close to call, but I will make a prediction . . . on Tuesday night, one hour before the polls close. Most of my predictions will be posted on this site at the same time.
Sure, we all know Councilor Roger Beaupre is unopposed in Ward Three and newcomer David Kurtz is unopposed in Ward Five, but what about the other council races? Again, most of them are too close to call . . . except one.
Three candidates are vying for the two At-Large seats on the council: Marc Lessard, Nasreen A. Shekh-Yousef and Lisa Vadnais.
Past performance matters. Lessard and Vadnais will be the winners, and it will be somewhat interesting to see which one gets the most votes.
Sheikh-Yousef made three big mistakes this year.
First, she did not hire Randy Seaver Consulting for campaign advice. (Relax. That’s a joke)
But the other two reasons are more serious.
First, she did not do any diligent reconnaissance work. Although she is a board member at the Heart of Biddeford, she has not served on any municipal boards or committees. She has lived in Biddeford less than four years. Her name recognition before taking out nomination papers was virtually nil, and it hasn’t improved much since.
Secondly, in my opinion, she bit off more than she could chew by seeking an at-large seat right out of the gate. Yes, it can be done. Doris Ortiz proved that, but not if you’re going up against two of the city’s heaviest hitters.
Had Sheikh-Yousef run for Ward Five City Council, I firmly believe she would have had a fair shot at winning, depending on the other candidates.
Although she did not hire me, I will offer her a bit of free advice:
Keep doing what you’re doing. After election day, continue to find other ways to be an engaged citizen. Biddeford could benefit from your perspective. Stay involved and be a part of the city’s continuing conversation.
And to all the candidates, thank you so much for stepping up to serve your community. You are working really hard to get a job that pays less than $100 a month and will take up several hours of your time.
You are willing to share your address and take criticism for almost every thing you do. You will be required to sit through mind-numbing presentations and smile for photo-ops.
I don’t know why you do it, but thank you.
I will be providing all-day coverage on Election Day with regular social media updates.
On Wednesday, I am going to sleep-in and enjoy the lunch that Robin Patterson is buying for me.
P.S. Campaign signs by the side of the road mean nothing. Campaign signs on peoples’ lawns mean everything.
Happy? Not Happy? The Biddeford Gazette welcomes feedback from our readers, especially when it comes to different opinions and perspectives. For more information, about how to send a Letter to the Editor or Guest Column, please contact us.
_____________________
Randy Seaver is the editor and founder of the Biddeford Gazette. He may be reached by email: randy@randyseaver.com
c.) 2025 All Rights Reserved
Never miss another update! Subscribe for free today!
THE BIDDEFORD GAZETTE 